The International Energy Agency reports that the Global oil producers are creating a new energy crisis which will spark a return to even higher gasoline pump prices than those experienced this year.
The Oil industry realizes that the world can only deal with one crisis at time. So for the moment they are sitting back while the current financial crisis plays itself out, waiting for the new President-elect to assume office and begin the task of repairing both the domestic and global economies.
By pocketing their windfall profits and not investing those monies in planned investments for new refining and exploration projects the fossil fuel industry is creating a new future energy crisis when the demand for fuel returns as the economy stabilizes.
 “We think that the investment decisions that are being made now are of crucial importance, not only to meet future growth in demand, but to compensate for the decline in existing fields,†said Fatih Birol, the Chief Economist at IEA.
The IEA report, released this November, notes that investments are being postponed by oil companies across the globe. Birol said, “When the demand rebounds we will see a supply crunch which may exceed the situation we saw this summer.â€
The IEA estimates that oil demand will climb to 106 million barrels a day by 2030, up from 85 million barrels today.
Some economists are concerned that the oil industry has already reached its peak production levels. The IEA believes that there is a sufficient amount of oil available to meet the rising demand, providing that investments by the oil companies are made in order to boost productive capacity.
The energy crisis of this last summer saw crude oil prices hover both below and above the 100 dollar per barrel mark. Currently oil is trading at the 50 dollar per barrel level. The IEA expects that crude barrel prices will return to the 100 dollar level by early next year and continue to rise to over 200 dollars by 2030.
The profit formula for the oil industry is basic. Restrict supply as demand increases, thus maximizing profitability.
Counting on the current economic crisis stabilizing, and factoring in not continuing planned investments to boost supply for the future, the oil industry is able to guarantee their stockholders a return of windfall profits.
“I’m quite optimistic that once we get over the current financial crisis we will get back to having a healthy demand,†said Real Cusson, the Senior Vice-President for Marketing for Canadian Natural Resources based in Calgary.
Canadian National Resources has followed the lead of their fellow oil colleagues by slashing their investments by nearly half in response to the current slump in gasoline prices. Canadian National’s main financial focus is their investments in Alberta Oil Sands expansion projects.
Pocketing profits and pleading poverty is an old mantra of the oil industry.
“There is definitely capital expenditure cutbacks among oil and gas companies of all sizes,†said Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist at ARC Financial Corp. Mr. Tertzakian says that companies are finishing the projects they have already invested in but have suspended or postponed any investment in new projects.
“We may take some comfort in the low prices we are seeing today but the lower the prices go, the less expenditure [investment] you are going to see. And then two years from now, when we’re out of this [economic] mess, that is when you will see problems on the supply side.â€
The IEA report signals a new fuel crisis is based on consumption as we now know it. The report warns that fuel consumption is changing drastically as more and more third world nations strengthen their economies and place new demands on fossil fuels.
The report says that under the current “business as usual†scenario greenhouse emissions could rise by 35 percent by 2030, a track that could lead to an average global temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
“What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution,†said the IEA.
They recommend a “major de-carbonization†of global energy supplies.
Global oil companies are in the carbon business and extracting maximum profits for their products regardless of the environmental impact.
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