As the United States deals with its reputation of being the world’s most energy-consuming nation, it appears that it may be curtailing its reliance on fossil fuel and increasing its depednence on renewable fuel for the forseeable future.  Information recently released by the United States Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) sheds new light on the US’ energy consumption trends.

Virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption is projected for the first time in 20 years, according to the EIA. Increased use of renewable fuels and a projected rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers are cited as reasons for the trend.

According to the EIA, liquid fuel demand will increase by only one million barrels per day through 2030.  Increased use of domestically-produced biofuels, rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices,and the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, will decline from 58 percent in 2007 to less than 40 percent in 2025 before increasing to 41 percent in 2030.

Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels,including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors, hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for electric power generation, ethanol for gasoline blending, and biomass-based diesel will grow by 3.3 percent per year.  This rapid growth reflects the impact of current renewable fuel standard adopted in 2007 by the U.S. government.

A sharp increase in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies, such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, and a significant decline in the new light-truck share of total light-duty vehicle sales are also projected. Hybrid vehicle sales will increase from two percent of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2007 to 38 percent in 2030. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will grow to 90,000 vehicles annually by 2014, supported by recently enacted tax credits. By 2030, PHEVs will account for two percent of new light vehicle sales.

Other projections include:
  • Coal, oil, and natural gas meet 79 percent of total U.S. primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from an 85-percent share in 2007.
  • Total domestic production of natural gas reaches 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030. While exploration and production costs rise over time, higher natural gas prices support the projected level of production. Onshore production of unconventional natural gas, including shale gas, increases from 9.2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 13.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
  • Ethanol use for gasoline blending will grow to 12.2 billion gallons and E85 consumption to 17.3 billion gallons in 2030. The ethanol supply from cellulosic feedstocks reaches 12.6 billion gallons (including both domestic and imported production) in 2030. Biodiesel and biomass-to-liquid diesel fuel use both rise significantly, reaching nearly 2 billion gallons and 5 billion gallons, respectively, in 2030.
  • Total electricity consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, grows from 3,903 billion kilowatthours in 2007 to 4,902 billion kilowatthours in 2030.
  • New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions. The natural gas share of electricity generation remains between 19 percent and 22 percent through 2030. Coal’s generation share declines from 49 percent to 45 percent between 2007 and 2025, then rebounds slightly to 47 percent in 2030 as a small number of new coal plants are added.

 

(Photo: Institute for Energy Research)