World Energy Use Projected to Grow by 44 Percent Through 2030; Economy and Oil Prices Are Unpredictable Factors

World energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent through 2030, according to recently released data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  These projections are driven by strong long-term economic growth in the world’s developing nations.

The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows; however, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark, but they are projected to return and to persist through 2030 as the world economies recover. According to the EIA, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 and $130 per barrel in 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 85 million barrels per day. Conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 8.2 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 3.4 million barrels per day.

In addition, unconventional resources — including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids — from both non-OPEC and OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive. World production of unconventional resources, which totaled 3.1 million barrels per day in 2006, increases to 13.4 million barrels per day in 2030, accounting for 13 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.

Recent experience demonstrates that world oil prices can be extremely volatile and, as a result, could span a very broad range in 2030, from $50 per barrel in the low price case to $200 per barrel in the high price case. These price paths translate to a fairly broad range of potential supply outlooks in 2030, ranging from 90 million barrels per day in the high price case to 120 million barrels per day in the low price case (compared to 107 million barrels per day).

Generation and use of sustainable energy resources are expected to remain relatively low compared to the non-renewable petroleum and other fossil fuel resoruces.  Although energy generation from renewable sources — particulary wind and solar — are rapidly increasing, they are not projected to get ahead of the demand curve and are expected to continue to supply approximately 14% of the world’s energy consumption in 2030.